diff --git a/server/nightr/strategies/upstairs_neighbour.py b/server/nightr/strategies/upstairs_neighbour.py
index b340c58..4b528b6 100644
--- a/server/nightr/strategies/upstairs_neighbour.py
+++ b/server/nightr/strategies/upstairs_neighbour.py
@@ -32,7 +32,9 @@ def check_games(context: Context) -> Prediction:
         p.reasons.append("Alexanders upstairs neighbour is currently playing league")
         p.probability = 0.8
     else:
+        last_game_in_hours = min(24.0, last_game_in_hours)
+
         p.reasons.append(f"Alexanders upstairs neighbour has not played league for {last_game_in_hours} hours!")
-        p.probability = last_game_in_hours / 24
+        p.probability = 1 - (last_game_in_hours / 24)
 
     return p